Battle Stadium Singles blog — Water Paradise (Special Edition)

Alright, so what we got here was 45 games of a mono-Water format without Tapu Fini, Urshifu-RS and Suicune to work with. Oh, and Silvally-Water is out, too. Yep, Silvally.

   But Gyarados (Moxie Max Airstream), Lapras (Freeze Dry), and Rotom-W are in, which means a more or less solved format, with outcomes heavily dependant on the lead game and the resultant interaction of these, the big three, in Dynamax.
   In other words, this is the closest thing, in terms of volatility of outcome, as we've come with a tournament format to the apotheosis of insanity that was the 1v1 tournament we had last March (and its Flash Clash predecessors of past gens).

Cushioning opposing Gyarados.

Too scared to lead Starmie, but get bailed out anyway because it's either Liquid Ooze or Rain Dish, and not Clear Body for whatever reason.

Yawn support set can't get through the Substitute.

Not today, friend.

In what world do you not open Rock Blast here as the Cloyster?

Dynamax Starmie turned this disaster around by living a low-roll +2 Max Rockfall (Rock Slide) + sand damage, and oneshotting the non-Rindo Berry/Choice Scarf Rotom in the back.

+2 252 Atk Kabutops Max Rockfall (130 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Dynamax Starmie: 232-274 (85.9 - 101.4%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO.

Choice Scarf Horn Drill. Mercifully, it only hit 1/4 drills letting Rotom KO it.

14/25 possible games played in a 675 person friendly competition using the Water Paradise ruleset a week prior to the tournament itself.

Announcement: https://battle.pokemon-home.com/regulation/000000110/en

Thread: https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/water-paradise.3687006/

Pokepaste: https://pokepast.es/ac16c428fc32df6e

1) Team overview

Lapras

As part of the big three for this format, Lapras differs from Rotom and Gyarados in that it is far and away the worst Dynamax-user of the three, more or less requiring one of three special conditions to even hope of outclassing its peers, those being: first, Trick Room; second, getting Weakness Policy-proced; and, third, as part of a Light Clay screens composition for a boosting sweeper like Kingdra.

   This being the case, I went for something intended as the alternative lead to Seismitoad, having very few truly awful match ups in that role, and carrying a more or less universally super-effective Freeze Dry for getting a 1-for-1 at the bare minimum. To that end, Assault Vest and Icy Wind found their way onto the set.

   Shell Armor Assault Vest makes it a guarantee to merely get 4HKO'd by opposing +252 SpAtt Thunderbolt Lapras. As for Icy Wind, the idea is to click it into anything natively faster in a non-Dynamax setting — the benchmark for Speed on this set being able to outspeed +252 Speed Rotom at -1.

   On the topic of Shell Armor, that, too, seems like a no-brainer over Water Absorb in a mono-Water environment, where, with the possible exception of Flip Turn, the only threat that should even carry a Water-move in the first place is physical Swift Swim Coba Berry Ludicolo in order to get through Dynamax Gyarados with its +2 Max Lightning. That's right, not even Dracovish wants to run its signature move in this when it has to get Sand Rush online with Max Rockfall.

Gyarados

The biggest fish in this little pond — going into every team select screen of testing in this format, my first thought inevitably was: "Is this a Gyarados game (momentum), or a Gyarados game (cushion)?"

    Now, although there are indeed some neat ways of checking it, Moxie Gyarados' power level in this is so beyond the pale, it can still brute-force through almost everything with Max Airstream momentum, most would-be checks included. And what it can't outright crack, it forces out the defensive Dynamax from, which makes fast attackers like Rotom and Starmie even better, not necessarily having to contend with opposing Dynamax bulk.

   Stone Edge over Earthquake would make the Gyarados mirror more reliable, but having cut Earthquake on Seismitoad, I decided that Gyarados really needs the coverage to get through Toxapex. Substitute on Gyarados also makes Earthquake better and Stone Edge worse.

   Speaking of Substitute, it exists on this set to beat Dynamax stuff that comes in after its own Dynamax turns are exhausted when playing for momentum, benefitting from the Max Airstream Speed boosts to outlast — with the help of Bounce — revenging Dynamax turns.

   When outside Dynamax, being able to play around both Counter users and tanky status spam (Toxapex, Jellicent, Pyukumuku etc.), not to mention Endure + Custap Berry tech, makes Substitute preferable, in my book, to other status moves like Dragon Dance, Taunt, or even Thunder Wave (Octillery teams).

   Cutting Dragon Dance here, and not carrying Horn Drill as the Max Strike speed control tool over Icy Wind, does not entirely rule out Lapras as a Dynamax user, with Rotom and Kabutops still potentially capable of setting up behind screens.

Rotom-W

The way this team deals with Gyarados momentum, when not going for it itself, is by revenging it with Rotom through some variation of the following scenario:

(1) Opposing Gyarados kills something with Max Airstream.
(2) Rotom comes out and Max Strikes while living +1 Max Overgrowth with Rindo Berry, becoming faster due to native Speed tiers.
(3) Rotom Max Guards.
(4) Gyarados Dynamax turns exhausted, Rotom still has 1 turn left and is faster, now threatening Gyarados with the KO even through Wacan Berry.

An alternative approach would be to run heavy defensive investments, which would let Rotom live a +1 Max Overgrowth without being forced into Dynamax, but, in my view, that set needs Thunder Wave to make progress towards actually doing something to Wacan Berry Gyarados beyond surviving the initial hit.
   Defensive Rotom is also worse against opposing Rotom, no small matter in this format, because it should only really be invested in Speed enough to outspeed a paralyzed +1 Speed Gyarados, and should lose most Rotom 1v1s as a result of this.

   Anyway, as far as my set goes, Dark Pulse is the flex slot here, playing into the forced defensive Dynamax role Rotom has on the team by further empowering it and a Starmie/Lapras in the back with a SpDef drop provided by Max Darkness. The other option I passed up on that would do just as well, if not better, was, again, Substitute.

Seismitoad

To reiterate, the plan with sets like this is to click Rock Tomb until knocked out, hopefully finding a turn to sneak Stealth Rock in there somewhere. On this team, the hyper offense follow-up is obviously Gyarados.

   The hyper offense suicide lead role this set is going for could also be done by Swampert, which has the distinction of threatening Counter and Mirror Coat, not to mention having Yawn and the excellent slow pivot out that is Flip Turn.

   What Seismitoad has over Swampert, though, is Power Whip and a much better Speed tier. Indeed, Power Whip lets Seismitoad actually have a button to click when it gets badly counterled, especially by Lapras and Ludicolo, both of whom it outspeeds, being especially notable for putting Lapras into Max Airstream range.

   Seismitoad is also relatively free against Lanturn, and not terrible against Rotom, outspeeding defensive variants. Speaking of free, Earthquake has been cut on this set over Substitute, which opposing lead Relicanth can realistically never break on good terms.

   The Tentacruel match up is the one major thing the lack of Earthquake massively impacts, especially given the fact that Clear Body makes Rock Tomb (and Lapras' Icy Wind) essentially useless, so Seismitoad should likely always find itself benched against it. Making things worse, Tentacruel also carries Mirror Coat, an existential threat to Lapras.

Starmie

This, like Kabutops, is kind of an afterthought, the realistic expectation being to bring Lapras/Seismitoad-Rotom- virtually every game. If anything, this set is most effective on the bench, Starmie's deterrent effect being not something to discount lightly given the things it can do in this format, from Life Orb Dynamax all inning to dual screens with Thunder Wave, or even Trick Room.

   Now, as far as the set goes, this is a Choice Scarf attacker with Hyper Beam for Max Strike over something like Trick, and a Speed tier to be able to revenge up to +2 252 Spd Cloyster.

   Defensively, living the Lapras Freeze Dry is a big deal to not become completely free for it, with Rotom's 252 SpAtt Volt Switch only having one damage roll to 1HKO (6.3% chance). Natural Cure also makes Starmie able to take trades safely against most dedicated cripple-leads like Relicanth.

   Psyshock is what really makes this bringable, though, carving out a niche for Starmie as the main Tentacruel-bopper, as well as being a decently impactful move to click against opposing Lapras, not risking hitting either Assault Vest or, more likely, Weakness Policy (Grass Knot, Thunderbolt).

Kabutops

So, yes, this was another completely untested set going into the event proper. Nevertheless, the idea here is to outspeed 252 Speed Lapras' 112 natively, and +1 Speed Gyarados with Weak Armor after hard switching into Max Airstream or clicking Endure.

   However, as Max Rockfall still requires Stealth Rock to 1HKO Gyarados through its Dynamax bulk, actually relying on Kabutops instead of the reactive Rotom play is slightly too convoluted for a Gyarados-check. Simply put, Rotom-mode was the preferable bring in virtually all of my games testing this team, both on showdown and in the friendly competition I played in on console.
   The main defensive benchmark is living +252 SpAtt Lapras Freeze Dry from full — the random Thunder still 1HKOs 4.41% of the time after factoring in accuracy — while threatening the 1HKO through both Stone Edge and Max Rockfall against all but the most defensive of variants.

   Swords Dance is obviously intended to capitalize on bulkier modes like Toxapex + Azumarill/Lanturn/Swampert, should they unexpectedly turn out to be a thing — even in the wallbreaker role, unfortunately, Kabutops is still mostly outperformed by Rotom.

   Aqua Jet provides added insurance against Shell Smash Cloyster and Carracosta, as well as against various Custap Berry abusers such as Relicanth, and, indeed, opposing Kabutops (Focus Sash Endure Weak Armor), which is a notable niche Rotom can't scratch, however.

   All in all, most Kabutops should be running Focus Sash in this, and for good reason: the double Weak Armor boost provided by Endure (+ Flail) lets its defensively check virtually anything. At the end of the day, though, by doing that, you are still relying on Focus Sash being intact in the back just as you are with things like Counter/Mirror Coat Gastrodon/Swampert and the Trick Room setters (Jellicent, Slowbro/King, and even Starmie), not to mention heavily telegraphing either a desire to protect that Focus Sash in the back (Freeze Dry Lapras or Grass-move lead to threaten the 1HKO against every viable Stealth Rock setter), or a turn 1 Dynamax opener (e.g. Dynamax-Focus Sash Trick Room setter-Lapras).

2) Tournament

In my usual custom, I will try to briefly document my losses. Other than that, I suppose the only other thing that might be interesting to track would be all the Power Whips and Rock Tombs being clicked, but I suppose whenever those whiff, I'll get a big L anyway, so I might as well just deal with those in screenshot form.

Day 1

Win / Loss:  –

Had family over bright and early and on short notice, and we ended up going around the Helsinki archipelago in weather that is more suited to the infernal regions than to these latitudes. Long story short, I was far too exhausted to make a dent in this at all.

Day 2

Win / Loss:  14 - 1

Miss both a Rock Tomb and a Power Whip in the same game, and it's only game 1.

Loss 1:  Lapras-Gyarados-Rotom vs Relicanth-Ludicolo-Kabutops

Opposing Kabutops hit two Endures in a row against Gyarados in the Substitute mindgame-endgame. When you go for an out, however unlikely it is, sometimes you get it. I can respect a GAMER with BIG PLAYS.

Loss 1.

"Better the haxer than the haxee", words to keep playing momentum offense over defensive styles by, especially in a Dynamax format.

After being para-haxed to death by Discharge on Lapras by a Leftovers Rotom that also crippled Rotom by winning the speed tie, I assumed I had to win two Gyarados speed ties in a row — against Dynamax Gyarados Max Airstream and then against opposing Bounce — for the game.

   If I had been doing the calculations, I would have noticed, after the first exchange of Max Airstreams, that that is Adamant damage. So, in reality, the only danger here was missing the 85% landing on the Bounce. (Lapras-Rotom-Gyarados vs Rotom-Lapras-Gyarados).

Ranking after the first 15 games, Saturday 11:00 CET +1.

So here's a mildly interesting fact: I play on mobile internet in these events because it's the only way I can get a NAT Type A/B connection with my current set-up. And upon noticing the charge on my phone was barely above 50% after a mere 15 games, and the one in my brain even lower than that, I resigned for the day.

   If memory serves, I've only done a "Sunday-rush" once before, on an alt account for 2019's Ultra Final, ending that run precisely at rank #100. Granted, the 30 matches I had left for this was not going to be anything like the full 45 matches in a day — in addition to the 15 main account games — of that tournament, but, nevertheless, a fair amount of games to try to sail mindfully through.

Day 3

Win / Loss: 15 – 14

Loss 2: Lapras-Rotom-Gyarados vs Ludicolo-Lapras-

Got instantly paralyzed and paralysis-proced by opposing Lapras Thunderbolt, losing the 1v1, and then missed a Power Whip on it to KO on a play to set up a free Substitute against their obvious Focus Sash Counter Ludicolo that switched out after clicking Fake Out on turn 1.

Loss 2.

Loss 3: Seismitoad-Rotom-Gyarados vs Kabutops-Rotom-Gyarados

Was afraid of being counterled by Stone Edge Kabutops on Lapras, so I went Seismitoad and clicked Substitute on turn 1. Only the lead Kabutops was a Giga Drain set and put me behind after killing Seismitoad and crippling Rotom.
    To add insult to injury, Choice Scarf Rotom's Thunderbolt even paralyzed Gyarados for the Gyarados mirror in the back, which left me having to hit a crit Max Airstream to win, instead of which I got the full paralysis.
    Getting the rough end of the RNG doesn't feel nearly as bad as losing to silly sets does (Giga Drain/Rapid Spin Kabutops, Life Orb Gyarados).

Loss 3.

It took 21 games to break 1700 (18-3) this time around.

Loss 4: Lapras-Rotom-Gyarados vs Starmie-Ludicolo-Lapras

Didn't click Icy Wind against a turn 1 Starmie, and got instantly punished by Life Orb Dynamax Starmie, which meant Gyarados was slower than it, losing its Wacan Berry. The follow-up was Counter Thunder Punch Ludicolo, who I got a Substitute against by Max Guarding twice, but died to Thunder Punch anyway.
    The endgame was Rotom vs Lapras, with Rotom going for Nasty Plot in order to avoid a Weakness Policy and being guaranteed to live a Freeze Dry — only for the Freeze Dry to crit. At least I can take solace in the fact that if it was Endure Custap Berry Lapras, I would have lost anyway.

Loss 4.

Loss 5: Lapras-Gyarados-Rotom vs Rotom-Lapras-Gastrodon

Lapras beat Discharge Rotom, after which opposing Lapras Dynamaxed, forcing me to trade Gyarados into it with Substitutes. Rotom died to Perish Song in the Rotom vs Gastrodon endgame after low-rolling a Thunderbolt on Lapras for the KO, letting it get it off.

Loss 5.

Loss 6: Seismitoad-Rotom-Gyarados vs Rotom-Vaporeon-Lapras

It's a Thunderbolt range to take the game against Light Clay screens Rotom + Acid Armor/Aqua Ring/Substitute Weakness Policy Baton Pass Vaporeon into Leftovers Lapras, and I barely miss it.

Loss 6. Can't be sure about exact defensive EVs here: 252 SpA Rotom-W Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Lapras-Gmax: 140-168 (59 - 70.8%)

Rating peak.

Loss 7: Lapras-Gyarados-Rotom vs Ludicolo-Gyarados-Rotom

Lost to Modest Choice Scarf Rotom in the back (Gyarados lives a Timid one from full) with a 50% Rotom and 100% Gyarados. This was one of the few games I felt like I got straight up outplayed by a better flowchart. GG.

Loss 7.

Loss 8: Seismitoad-Gyarados-Rotom vs Lapras-Relicanth-Gyarados

Got the first hard Seismitoad counterlead of the event, and it's Choice Scarf Lapras, forcing me to revenge it with Gyarados. Opponent is a good enough of a sport to try to throw by switching Lapras out for Relicanth, giving me the momentum.
   Unfortunately their Gyarados is Life Orb instead of Wacan Berry so Max Airstream is not survivable from full (252 Atk Gyarados Max Airstream (130 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Gyarados: 132-156 (77.6 - 91.7%). Rolling paralysis from Bounce would have also have done it.

Loss 8.

It's nearing 18:00 and I still have 14 games to go, and a rating swinging between both sides of 1700, with a peak of merely 1732.

Loss 9: 

Got disconncted on my end from the team preview screen against TN "PEDRO", who had a team missing two of the big three, and was instead running Drednaw, Jellicent, and Lanturn.

Loss 10: Seismitoad-Rotom-Gyarados vs Arctovish-

Got frozen by Choice Scarf Arctovish on turn 1 while clicking Rock Tomb, so I just conceded. That's two quick losses in succession without being even able to get a move off.

Loss 10.

Loss 11: Lapras-Rotom-Gyarados vs Ludicolo-Rotom-Lapras

Missed a +1 Power Whip against Lapras to win it after checking for Endure by Max Guarding on my last Dynamax turn. Opposing Lapras clicked Protect on that turn (Perish Song set?), so I knew Power Whiffing would be especially painful here.

   And boy was it ever. A cool -20 pts. for my troubles and down to the 1680s after that one.

Loss 11.

Loss 12: Lapras-Rotom-Gyarados vs Gyarados-Azumarill-Lapras

Turn 1 Dynamax Gyarados put everything into sweeping range for Choice Scarf Lapras. Good flowchart, good execution. GG.

Loss 12.

Loss 13: Lapras-Rotom-Gyarados vs Rotom-Dracovish-

Got bopped by Sand Rush Dracovish. Would have Dynamaxed Rotom against it (Max Strike-Max Guard-Max Strike), but it got bruised into Max Rockfall range after losing what I assume was a Rotom speed tie cleaning up after Lapras fell.

   I did have a screenshot of the full teams and the game state for this loss, but accidentally deleted it while editing this whole thing together. Oopsie.

Still in range to save face with a 1700s finish with seven games to go.

Loss 14: Lapras-Rotom-Gyarados vs Toxapex-Ludicolo-Gyarados

Big 1784 pts. opponent. Red Card Toxapex brought out Rotom on Lapras' turn 1 Freeze Dry. Rotom got a free Nasty Plot on Ludicolo switching in, forcing a defensive Dynamax, which Rindo Berry Rotom lived, getting in two +2 Thunderbolts.
   This was not enough to win, however, as it was Intimidate Gyarados in the back cushioning my Gyarados. Although I hit a Max Quake against Gyarados on a Toxapex switching in to break the defensive cycle, I ended up needing either a Stone Edge miss in the Gyarados mirror, or a Power Whip miss on the subsequent Lapras to take it. GG.

Loss 14.

Loss 15: Starmie-Rotom-Gyarados vs Lapras-Rotom-Relicanth

Frozen turn 1 by Choice Scarf Lapras' Freeze Dry, after which Rotom got crippled by Freeze Dry, meaning Gyarados had to essentially 2v1 Dynamax Rotom and whatever was in the back.
    Successfully got around Custap Berry Relicanth in the lategame by Substituting with 19 HP Gyarados on Endure after it Head Smashed to break the initial Substitute, breaking its Sturdy, only to miss yet another deciding +1 Power Whip. Down to 1668 after that loss, with only three more games to go.

Loss 15.

Loss 16: Lapras-Gyarados-Rotom vs Rotom-Lapras-Ludicolo

Non-Gigantamax (!) Weakness Policy Lapras with Protect and Ice Shard beat a Gyarados burned by +252 Speed Charge Leftovers Rotom, leading to an endgame where I had to roll either a Dark Pulse flinch or paralysis on Ludicolo. Nope. 1650 with two games left.

   This was the most bizarre game of the tournament, and it was hard to escape the feeling that I lost to an opponent, who, with all due respect, it felt didn't entirely know what was going on. It's ok though, I play like that more often than I would care to admit.

Loss 16.

Loss 17: Lapras-Rotom-Gyarados vs Rotom-Sharpedo-Lapras

Sharpedo successfully pulled off two consecutive Max Guards in a row in the endgame to take it against Gyarados.

   This was the fourth loss in a row (I dropped 4 out of my last 5 games), so instead of taking a screenshot, unconfirmed reports have me shaking my fist and yelling at some of the clouds passing by. Only there were no clouds.

Final ranking. 28-17.

3) In Conclusion

Well, this sure started out alright, but quickly turned into by far the worst outing I've had since Galar Beginnings in 2019.

   In a format like this, getting the bad end of the RNG is extremely punishing, and I kind of ended up getting more than my share of that towards the end of the tournament, basically a full half of my considerable number of losses being due to missing Power Whip, getting Freeze Dry frozen, 30% double Endure/Max Guarder on, or just plain crit, as described above.

   But that is the nature of the beast. And even with slightly more reasonable luck, I don't think I would have made it much above 1750 anyway.

   Thanks for reading again, and I hope to see you at the end of the month for my final team write-up of Series 9.

- Tox

SW-0021-9848-8999